Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: América-MG beat Náutico with a 24.2% chance and Vila Nova beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 16.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 5 (before the first match) against those on October 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 32.8% | 48.8% | +16.0 |
| Vasco | Promotion | 70.5% | 84.8% | +14.4 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 11.3% | 23.0% | +11.7 |
| Avaí | Champion | 22.4% | 11.8% | −10.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 82.8% | 93.3% | +10.5 |
| ABC | Relegation | 16.9% | 7.6% | −9.3 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 10.8% | 19.5% | +8.6 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 54.8% | 62.5% | +7.7 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 12.6% | 5.2% | −7.4 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 75.4% | 68.1% | −7.3 |
