Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat Avaí with a 20.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceará | Promotion | 32.5% | 54.3% | +21.7 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 85.2% | 75.4% | −9.8 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 4.8% | 12.6% | +7.8 |
| ABC | Relegation | 9.4% | 16.9% | +7.6 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 62.0% | 54.8% | −7.2 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 71.8% | 64.8% | −7.0 |
| Avaí | Champion | 29.1% | 22.4% | −6.7 |
| Ceará | Champion | 2.8% | 9.0% | +6.2 |
| Oeste | Relegation | 26.6% | 20.5% | −6.1 |
| Luverdense | Relegation | 4.5% | 8.8% | +4.3 |
