Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Red Bull Bragantino beat América-MG with a 19.2% chance and Vila Nova beat Icasa with a 17.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 14 (before the first match) against those on September 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 46.1% | 25.1% | −21.0 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 41.4% | 58.3% | +16.9 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 67.5% | 79.3% | +11.8 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 70.3% | 81.6% | +11.3 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 19.4% | 9.0% | −10.5 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 16.5% | 8.5% | −8.0 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 26.6% | 34.4% | +7.8 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 74.3% | 81.8% | +7.5 |
| Joinville | Champion | 21.9% | 29.0% | +7.1 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 16.2% | 9.9% | −6.2 |
