Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Boa Esporte beat América-MG with a 22.3% chance and Red Bull Bragantino beat Portuguesa with a 23.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 9 (before the first match) against those on September 14 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 61.6% | 46.1% | −15.5 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 32.8% | 19.4% | −13.4 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 28.3% | 41.4% | +13.0 |
| Boa Esporte | Promotion | 11.9% | 21.6% | +9.7 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 81.2% | 90.3% | +9.1 |
| Ceará | Promotion | 58.4% | 49.8% | −8.6 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 67.5% | 74.3% | +6.9 |
| Avaí | Champion | 22.4% | 29.0% | +6.6 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 11.0% | 16.5% | +5.6 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 64.9% | 70.3% | +5.4 |
