Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: América-RN beat Icasa with a 24.2% chance, Náutico beat Luverdense with a 19.9% chance, and Vila Nova beat Oeste with a 14.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 10 (before the first match) against those on October 14 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 15.6% | 86.8% | +71.2 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 19.8% | 73.5% | +53.7 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 13.0% | 62.3% | +49.3 |
| Luverdense | Promotion | 47.1% | 0.1% | −47.1 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 23.0% | 69.6% | +46.6 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 66.1% | 24.8% | −41.4 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 61.7% | 99.2% | +37.5 |
| Vasco | Promotion | 53.8% | 88.1% | +34.3 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 2.1% | 32.1% | +30.1 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 39.9% | 67.3% | +27.3 |
