Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Luverdense beat Avaí with a 23.9% chance and Santa Cruz beat América-RN with a 22.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 27 (before the first match) against those on August 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luverdense | Promotion | 26.9% | 39.4% | +12.5 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 36.0% | 24.9% | −11.0 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 67.1% | 58.1% | −9.1 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 22.8% | 31.3% | +8.6 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 39.6% | 31.4% | −8.2 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 51.0% | 59.1% | +8.1 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 19.9% | 12.3% | −7.6 |
| Vasco | Promotion | 36.0% | 43.2% | +7.2 |
| América-RN | Promotion | 20.2% | 13.2% | −7.0 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 23.4% | 29.9% | +6.5 |
