Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Oeste beat Boa Esporte with a 22.1% chance, Avaí beat Paraná with a 20.9% chance, and América-MG beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 23.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 2 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Promotion | 64.0% | 42.3% | −21.7 |
| ABC | Relegation | 50.6% | 36.0% | −14.6 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 21.8% | 35.2% | +13.4 |
| Oeste | Relegation | 19.9% | 7.3% | −12.6 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 34.1% | 22.1% | −12.0 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 69.2% | 57.2% | −12.0 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 57.6% | 69.0% | +11.3 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 43.9% | 54.9% | +11.0 |
| Sport | Promotion | 42.7% | 52.7% | +9.9 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 9.8% | 18.2% | +8.4 |
