Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: ABC beat Atlético-GO with a 22.2% chance, Red Bull Bragantino beat América-RN with a 24.7% chance, Figueirense beat Boa Esporte with a 24.9% chance, and América-MG beat Paraná with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 29 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC | Relegation | 73.2% | 50.6% | −22.6 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 78.0% | 64.0% | −14.0 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 45.7% | 34.1% | −11.6 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 46.4% | 57.9% | +11.5 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 47.5% | 57.6% | +10.2 |
| Sport | Promotion | 33.1% | 42.7% | +9.6 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 7.9% | 14.3% | +6.4 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 50.1% | 43.9% | −6.2 |
| Oeste | Relegation | 14.2% | 19.9% | +5.7 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 16.3% | 21.8% | +5.5 |
