Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Red Bull Bragantino beat São Caetano with a 24.1% chance, Avaí beat Joinville with a 20.6% chance, and Ceará beat Boa Esporte with a 24.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 18 (before the first match) against those on September 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Relegation | 43.7% | 56.9% | +13.2 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 68.5% | 56.4% | −12.1 |
| Palmeiras | Champion | 75.3% | 86.7% | +11.3 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 23.2% | 12.0% | −11.2 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 7.8% | 17.8% | +10.0 |
| ABC | Relegation | 90.1% | 80.9% | −9.2 |
| Chapecoense | Champion | 19.5% | 11.2% | −8.2 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 39.6% | 47.7% | +8.1 |
| Icasa | Promotion | 11.7% | 18.9% | +7.2 |
| ASA | Relegation | 62.4% | 68.8% | +6.4 |
