Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 5 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: ASA beat América-MG with a 21.6% chance, ABC beat Paraná with a 23.3% chance, Avaí beat Ceará with a 23.0% chance, Joinville beat Criciúma with a 21.8% chance, and Athletico-PR beat São Caetano with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 27 (before the first match) against those on November 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 61.2% | 93.3% | +32.2 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 44.7% | 13.1% | −31.6 |
| Goiás | Champion | 37.6% | 64.0% | +26.4 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 47.5% | 24.0% | −23.4 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 56.3% | 46.9% | −9.4 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 4.5% | 12.9% | +8.4 |
| Vitória | Champion | 12.5% | 6.2% | −6.3 |
| Athletico-PR | Champion | 1.7% | 5.7% | +4.0 |
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 95.8% | 99.5% | +3.7 |
