Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Grêmio Barueri beat América-MG with a 16.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 22 (before the first match) against those on September 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | Champion | 72.1% | 55.3% | −16.7 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 14.9% | 28.4% | +13.5 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 59.2% | 72.0% | +12.8 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 70.0% | 82.8% | +12.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 40.3% | 27.7% | −12.6 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 63.2% | 52.3% | −11.0 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 88.6% | 78.2% | −10.4 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 24.6% | 34.2% | +9.7 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 85.6% | 93.4% | +7.8 |
| Goiás | Champion | 5.3% | 11.3% | +6.0 |
