Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat América-RN with a 24.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 11 (before the first match) against those on September 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Promotion | 43.3% | 58.7% | +15.4 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 50.1% | 36.5% | −13.6 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 31.4% | 20.7% | −10.7 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 63.9% | 53.9% | −10.0 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 72.4% | 80.3% | +8.0 |
| Vitória | Champion | 72.4% | 66.7% | −5.7 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 72.0% | 76.9% | +4.9 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 89.4% | 94.0% | +4.6 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 10.9% | 6.7% | −4.2 |
| CRB | Relegation | 19.5% | 23.7% | +4.2 |
