Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 8 home wins, no draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat América-MG with a 23.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 9 (before the first match) against those on September 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Promotion | 28.7% | 43.3% | +14.6 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 45.1% | 31.4% | −13.7 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 76.7% | 63.9% | −12.8 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 19.1% | 8.2% | −10.9 |
| Vitória | Champion | 63.1% | 72.4% | +9.3 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 41.7% | 50.1% | +8.4 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 17.0% | 8.8% | −8.2 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 65.1% | 72.4% | +7.3 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 78.8% | 72.0% | −6.8 |
| CRB | Relegation | 13.0% | 19.5% | +6.5 |
