Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: CRB beat Guaratinguetá with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 1 (before the first match) against those on September 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Promotion | 33.2% | 48.6% | +15.4 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 55.4% | 69.7% | +14.4 |
| CRB | Relegation | 20.0% | 9.2% | −10.8 |
| ABC | Relegation | 24.1% | 15.2% | −9.0 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 48.1% | 39.6% | −8.6 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 82.0% | 89.7% | +7.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 22.4% | 30.0% | +7.5 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 59.1% | 51.7% | −7.4 |
| ASA | Relegation | 13.8% | 7.1% | −6.7 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 15.5% | 11.1% | −4.4 |
