Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, no draws and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Guaratinguetá beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.6% chance, Athletico-PR beat Paraná with a 24.8% chance, Guarani beat São Caetano with a 20.1% chance, and ASA beat CRB with a 23.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 19 (before the first match) against those on August 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Promotion | 48.8% | 36.4% | −12.5 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 19.9% | 30.6% | +10.7 |
| ASA | Relegation | 30.1% | 19.4% | −10.7 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 45.0% | 55.6% | +10.6 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 54.5% | 64.9% | +10.4 |
| CRB | Relegation | 16.7% | 26.8% | +10.1 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 79.5% | 69.8% | −9.7 |
| Vitória | Champion | 49.7% | 58.8% | +9.1 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 40.9% | 33.2% | −7.7 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 83.2% | 89.6% | +6.5 |
