Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Boa Esporte beat ABC with a 22.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 14 (before the first match) against those on August 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 41.5% | 54.5% | +13.0 |
| Vitória | Champion | 38.0% | 49.7% | +11.7 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 21.4% | 11.7% | −9.8 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 19.0% | 9.2% | −9.7 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 35.6% | 27.4% | −8.2 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 87.2% | 79.5% | −7.7 |
| Joinville | Promotion | 51.7% | 45.0% | −6.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 13.8% | 19.9% | +6.1 |
| ABC | Relegation | 9.5% | 15.2% | +5.6 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 15.0% | 19.9% | +4.9 |
