Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Goiás beat Guarani with a 24.2% chance and Athletico-PR beat Avaí with a 24.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 14 (before the first match) against those on July 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| América-RN | Promotion | 40.1% | 30.8% | −9.2 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 65.5% | 73.7% | +8.2 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 20.2% | 27.5% | +7.3 |
| Athletico-PR | Promotion | 16.4% | 23.6% | +7.2 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 15.3% | 8.3% | −7.1 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 31.6% | 25.9% | −5.7 |
| Vitória | Champion | 21.1% | 26.7% | +5.6 |
| ASA | Relegation | 33.1% | 38.6% | +5.5 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 20.0% | 25.4% | +5.4 |
| Joinville | Relegation | 8.9% | 3.9% | −5.0 |
