Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Grêmio Barueri beat Ipatinga with a 21.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 7 (before the first match) against those on July 14 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 65.2% | 82.2% | +17.0 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 84.0% | 71.5% | −12.5 |
| América-MG | Champion | 33.7% | 23.2% | −10.5 |
| CRB | Relegation | 29.6% | 20.0% | −9.5 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 59.0% | 49.9% | −9.1 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 77.1% | 68.7% | −8.5 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 23.4% | 31.6% | +8.2 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 57.5% | 65.5% | +8.0 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 22.8% | 15.3% | −7.5 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 13.8% | 6.7% | −7.1 |
