Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Icasa beat Vila Nova with a 20.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 28 (before the first match) against those on July 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Icasa | Relegation | 44.4% | 32.8% | −11.5 |
| ASA | Relegation | 30.5% | 20.1% | −10.3 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 44.3% | 54.5% | +10.3 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 66.2% | 56.2% | −10.1 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 41.1% | 31.4% | −9.7 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 68.8% | 78.2% | +9.4 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 56.3% | 65.4% | +9.2 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 40.2% | 31.8% | −8.4 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 13.7% | 21.3% | +7.7 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 13.3% | 20.8% | +7.6 |
