Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Boa Esporte beat Ponte Preta with a 21.2% chance and ABC beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 8 (before the first match) against those on November 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Relegation | 16.7% | 39.0% | +22.3 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 47.1% | 66.7% | +19.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 96.7% | 77.7% | −19.0 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 32.8% | 18.7% | −14.0 |
| ASA | Relegation | 42.5% | 31.6% | −10.9 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 34.0% | 40.1% | +6.1 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 5.8% | 0.2% | −5.6 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 2.8% | 8.0% | +5.1 |
| Goiás | Promotion | 3.0% | 0% | −3.0 |
