Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Guarani beat São Caetano with a 22.8% chance and ABC beat Icasa with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 29 (before the first match) against those on November 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Icasa | Relegation | 42.6% | 67.7% | +25.1 |
| ABC | Relegation | 19.5% | 1.7% | −17.7 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 11.4% | 1.2% | −10.2 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 13.7% | 23.2% | +9.5 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 26.9% | 17.6% | −9.2 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 13.8% | 4.9% | −8.8 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 90.1% | 97.9% | +7.7 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 38.0% | 44.2% | +6.2 |
| ASA | Relegation | 12.8% | 18.9% | +6.1 |
| Boa Esporte | Promotion | 3.8% | 0.5% | −3.3 |
