Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 5 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Guaratinguetá beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 44.8% | 63.9% | +19.1 |
| Sport | Promotion | 48.8% | 36.3% | −12.5 |
| ABC | Relegation | 16.8% | 7.0% | −9.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 68.6% | 77.3% | +8.8 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 76.6% | 68.2% | −8.4 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 22.4% | 15.7% | −6.7 |
| ASA | Relegation | 9.5% | 3.5% | −6.0 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 7.6% | 11.8% | +4.2 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 16.9% | 20.9% | +4.0 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 57.3% | 61.3% | +3.9 |
