Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat Sport with a 20.1% chance and Grêmio Barueri beat Vitória with a 21.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 1 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boa Esporte | Promotion | 17.5% | 37.0% | +19.4 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 53.7% | 38.1% | −15.7 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 61.3% | 76.4% | +15.1 |
| Sport | Promotion | 36.3% | 24.5% | −11.8 |
| Portuguesa | Champion | 77.6% | 88.4% | +10.8 |
| Salgueiro | Relegation | 89.1% | 96.2% | +7.2 |
| ABC | Relegation | 7.0% | 13.8% | +6.8 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 13.6% | 7.4% | −6.2 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 37.1% | 31.3% | −5.8 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 11.8% | 6.2% | −5.6 |
