Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Vila Nova beat ABC with a 20.9% chance, Guarani beat Guaratinguetá with a 22.4% chance, and Salgueiro beat Goiás with a 19.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 17 (before the first match) against those on September 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 64.7% | 48.3% | −16.3 |
| Sport | Promotion | 42.2% | 57.8% | +15.5 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 41.1% | 28.3% | −12.9 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 12.4% | 24.8% | +12.5 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 29.2% | 19.1% | −10.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 67.8% | 77.5% | +9.7 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 56.6% | 65.8% | +9.2 |
| Salgueiro | Relegation | 84.6% | 75.6% | −9.0 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 73.5% | 67.2% | −6.3 |
| ABC | Relegation | 5.0% | 10.8% | +5.8 |
