Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Boa Esporte beat Icasa with a 22.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 13 (before the first match) against those on September 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa | Champion | 55.2% | 69.3% | +14.1 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 24.7% | 36.9% | +12.2 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 54.0% | 64.7% | +10.7 |
| ASA | Relegation | 15.3% | 6.7% | −8.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 17.6% | 9.6% | −8.0 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 75.2% | 67.8% | −7.5 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 66.2% | 73.5% | +7.3 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 12.3% | 5.2% | −7.1 |
| Sport | Promotion | 48.6% | 42.2% | −6.4 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 18.3% | 24.7% | +6.4 |
