Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 1 home win, 4 draws and 5 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sport beat Grêmio Barueri with a 24.7% chance, Guaratinguetá beat Paraná with a 21.9% chance, and Boa Esporte beat Vila Nova with a 24.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 3 (before the first match) against those on September 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Promotion | 22.4% | 10.7% | −11.7 |
| Sport | Promotion | 30.7% | 42.3% | +11.6 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 25.6% | 37.2% | +11.5 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 39.4% | 49.0% | +9.6 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 37.3% | 45.3% | +8.0 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 13.0% | 20.0% | +7.1 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 10.2% | 3.3% | −6.9 |
| Salgueiro | Relegation | 95.7% | 89.5% | −6.2 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 10.5% | 4.6% | −5.9 |
| Náutico | Champion | 15.9% | 20.6% | +4.8 |
