Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Salgueiro beat Guarani with a 18.3% chance, Sport beat Paraná with a 22.7% chance, and Guaratinguetá beat Vila Nova with a 21.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 16 (before the first match) against those on August 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Promotion | 41.2% | 29.8% | −11.4 |
| Salgueiro | Relegation | 86.7% | 76.1% | −10.6 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 51.6% | 62.1% | +10.5 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 20.4% | 30.4% | +10.0 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 16.8% | 7.8% | −9.1 |
| Sport | Promotion | 11.3% | 19.6% | +8.4 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 8.0% | 16.0% | +7.9 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 21.3% | 13.4% | −7.9 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 11.0% | 17.5% | +6.6 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 12.4% | 6.1% | −6.3 |
