Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Guarani beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.3% chance and Boa Esporte beat Vitória with a 21.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 26 (before the first match) against those on August 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salgueiro | Relegation | 47.3% | 70.1% | +22.8 |
| Portuguesa | Champion | 36.8% | 59.5% | +22.7 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 35.1% | 17.0% | −18.1 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 27.1% | 9.8% | −17.3 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 77.2% | 92.5% | +15.3 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 48.9% | 34.4% | −14.4 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 8.3% | 20.3% | +12.0 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 18.9% | 8.6% | −10.4 |
| Boa Esporte | Promotion | 4.9% | 15.2% | +10.2 |
| ABC | Promotion | 34.2% | 24.2% | −10.1 |
