Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Grêmio Barueri beat Paraná with a 20.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 30 (before the first match) against those on August 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Promotion | 48.3% | 32.8% | −15.5 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 47.3% | 62.5% | +15.2 |
| Salgueiro | Relegation | 54.0% | 69.0% | +15.0 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Relegation | 25.7% | 14.5% | −11.2 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 36.5% | 26.0% | −10.5 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 42.4% | 52.7% | +10.3 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 23.9% | 13.8% | −10.1 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 30.7% | 39.1% | +8.4 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 11.5% | 19.3% | +7.8 |
| Portuguesa | Champion | 51.1% | 58.5% | +7.4 |
