Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Boa Esporte beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 21.4% chance, Criciúma beat Icasa with a 24.2% chance, and Ponte Preta beat Paraná with a 22.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 23 (before the first match) against those on July 26 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 45.7% | 61.7% | +16.0 |
| Boa Esporte | Relegation | 39.0% | 27.1% | −11.9 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 60.2% | 48.9% | −11.4 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 32.2% | 43.2% | +11.0 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 45.7% | 35.1% | −10.6 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 30.2% | 40.6% | +10.4 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 17.5% | 27.2% | +9.7 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 11.0% | 18.8% | +7.8 |
| Sport | Promotion | 31.5% | 24.3% | −7.2 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 9.5% | 16.1% | +6.6 |
