Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Bahia beat América-MG with a 23.6% chance and ASA beat Guaratinguetá with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 6 (before the first match) against those on November 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| América-MG | Promotion | 81.3% | 59.7% | −21.6 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 24.3% | 3.3% | −21.0 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 87.4% | 98.4% | +11.0 |
| Guaratinguetá | Relegation | 9.9% | 20.5% | +10.5 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 13.9% | 23.5% | +9.7 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 77.4% | 86.8% | +9.4 |
| Figueirense | Champion | 14.0% | 7.9% | −6.1 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 44.7% | 48.8% | +4.1 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 95.7% | 98.8% | +3.1 |
