Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 2 draws and 6 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat Náutico with a 24.4% chance, Icasa beat Bahia with a 18.0% chance, Red Bull Bragantino beat Brasiliense with a 24.8% chance, and Portuguesa beat América-MG with a 21.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 25 (before the first match) against those on September 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | Promotion | 77.3% | 60.8% | −16.4 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 40.5% | 56.5% | +16.0 |
| Sport | Promotion | 20.8% | 35.2% | +14.4 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 66.9% | 52.6% | −14.3 |
| Icasa | Relegation | 23.8% | 9.8% | −14.1 |
| Figueirense | Champion | 15.6% | 28.7% | +13.1 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 21.8% | 9.1% | −12.7 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 68.7% | 81.1% | +12.4 |
| Bahia | Champion | 23.5% | 13.1% | −10.4 |
| ASA | Relegation | 22.5% | 31.8% | +9.3 |
