Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat Ponte Preta with a 19.4% chance and Bahia beat Sport with a 23.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 21 (before the first match) against those on September 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 60.9% | 42.1% | −18.8 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 60.9% | 77.3% | +16.4 |
| Sport | Promotion | 35.9% | 20.8% | −15.2 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 52.1% | 66.9% | +14.7 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 34.8% | 21.8% | −13.0 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 15.1% | 5.2% | −9.9 |
| Bahia | Champion | 15.2% | 23.5% | +8.3 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 14.4% | 7.9% | −6.5 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 47.5% | 53.3% | +5.8 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 62.9% | 68.7% | +5.8 |
