Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Duque de Caxias beat Náutico with a 20.7% chance, Sport beat Guaratinguetá with a 24.2% chance, and Vila Nova beat Icasa with a 16.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 7 (before the first match) against those on September 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 62.2% | 44.0% | −18.2 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 38.9% | 51.1% | +12.2 |
| Sport | Promotion | 19.9% | 31.5% | +11.6 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 35.6% | 46.4% | +10.9 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 45.2% | 55.7% | +10.5 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 29.3% | 19.1% | −10.2 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 15.2% | 7.3% | −7.9 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 17.5% | 9.9% | −7.7 |
| Figueirense | Champion | 46.6% | 39.2% | −7.4 |
| ASA | Relegation | 25.4% | 18.2% | −7.2 |
