Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 5 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Guaratinguetá beat ASA with a 22.4% chance and Duque de Caxias beat Coritiba with a 14.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 21 (before the first match) against those on August 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 43.7% | 25.9% | −17.8 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 64.6% | 49.6% | −15.0 |
| Figueirense | Champion | 22.7% | 35.4% | +12.7 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 38.2% | 50.4% | +12.2 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 64.7% | 76.7% | +12.0 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 23.9% | 12.5% | −11.4 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 18.3% | 28.5% | +10.3 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 71.2% | 80.8% | +9.6 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 40.4% | 30.9% | −9.5 |
| Guaratinguetá | Promotion | 8.9% | 16.1% | +7.2 |
