Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Duque de Caxias beat Sport with a 16.3% chance and Ponte Preta beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 24.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 24 (before the first match) against those on July 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 23.4% | 36.8% | +13.4 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 53.9% | 40.8% | −13.1 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 21.9% | 33.9% | +12.1 |
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 69.6% | 57.7% | −11.9 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 36.3% | 47.0% | +10.7 |
| Náutico | Promotion | 64.1% | 54.7% | −9.5 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 57.2% | 66.5% | +9.3 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 34.1% | 24.9% | −9.1 |
| Sport | Relegation | 15.3% | 24.0% | +8.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 18.6% | 10.8% | −7.8 |
