Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Red Bull Bragantino beat Vila Nova with a 24.3% chance, Guarani beat Brasiliense with a 23.8% chance, and Campinense beat Juventude with a 18.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 3 (before the first match) against those on October 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceará | Promotion | 68.5% | 85.5% | +17.0 |
| ABC | Relegation | 54.2% | 70.5% | +16.3 |
| Campinense | Relegation | 84.8% | 68.8% | −16.0 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 66.8% | 52.1% | −14.7 |
| Juventude | Relegation | 16.4% | 30.6% | +14.1 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 25.3% | 13.0% | −12.3 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 54.4% | 43.2% | −11.2 |
| Guarani | Champion | 19.5% | 30.3% | +10.8 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 47.0% | 56.9% | +10.0 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 86.5% | 96.0% | +9.4 |
