Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, no draws and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Paraná beat Brasiliense with a 21.2% chance, Guarani beat São Caetano with a 21.3% chance, Figueirense beat Vasco with a 20.0% chance, and Duque de Caxias beat Bahia with a 21.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 26 (before the first match) against those on September 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco | Champion | 81.2% | 63.3% | −17.9 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 24.7% | 42.4% | +17.7 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 29.4% | 12.1% | −17.3 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 40.0% | 23.8% | −16.3 |
| Guarani | Champion | 9.8% | 26.0% | +16.2 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 34.5% | 50.2% | +15.8 |
| Campinense | Relegation | 73.4% | 87.0% | +13.6 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 77.5% | 64.6% | −12.9 |
| Ceará | Promotion | 51.6% | 64.4% | +12.8 |
| ABC | Relegation | 61.5% | 49.8% | −11.7 |
