Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, no draws and 5 away wins. 5 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Brasiliense beat Bahia with a 23.0% chance, São Caetano beat Ponte Preta with a 22.0% chance, Duque de Caxias beat América-RN with a 22.2% chance, Paraná beat Ceará with a 19.0% chance, and Ipatinga beat Portuguesa with a 21.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 15 (before the first match) against those on September 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Promotion | 20.4% | 40.7% | +20.2 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 30.3% | 49.4% | +19.0 |
| Vasco | Champion | 59.4% | 75.2% | +15.8 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 45.7% | 31.0% | −14.7 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 15.4% | 28.4% | +13.1 |
| Ceará | Promotion | 67.3% | 54.8% | −12.6 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 71.3% | 81.7% | +10.4 |
| ABC | Relegation | 64.2% | 74.4% | +10.2 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 21.0% | 10.8% | −10.2 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 22.2% | 13.1% | −9.1 |
