Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Bahia beat Paraná with a 23.4% chance, Campinense beat Duque de Caxias with a 18.9% chance, and Vila Nova beat Portuguesa with a 20.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 22 (before the first match) against those on August 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 26.9% | 41.5% | +14.6 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 31.2% | 17.1% | −14.1 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 47.9% | 58.4% | +10.4 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 31.7% | 41.7% | +10.0 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 19.5% | 9.5% | −10.0 |
| Vasco | Champion | 47.8% | 57.3% | +9.6 |
| Campinense | Relegation | 92.5% | 82.9% | −9.5 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 73.6% | 82.4% | +8.7 |
| Ceará | Promotion | 50.8% | 42.7% | −8.1 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 16.8% | 24.9% | +8.0 |
