Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Portuguesa beat Fortaleza with a 24.3% chance, Ceará beat Vasco with a 19.9% chance, and Ipatinga beat Vila Nova with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 25 (before the first match) against those on August 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceará | Promotion | 42.7% | 62.5% | +19.8 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 38.4% | 52.7% | +14.3 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 37.8% | 25.4% | −12.4 |
| Vasco | Champion | 57.3% | 45.7% | −11.7 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 17.1% | 28.3% | +11.2 |
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 18.4% | 8.6% | −9.8 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 58.4% | 48.8% | −9.6 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 41.7% | 32.4% | −9.4 |
| Campinense | Relegation | 82.9% | 75.9% | −7.0 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 7.5% | 14.3% | +6.8 |
