Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Paraná beat Criciúma with a 23.9% chance and Vila Nova beat Fortaleza with a 20.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 28 (before the first match) against those on July 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Relegation | 26.8% | 14.3% | −12.6 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 17.1% | 27.8% | +10.7 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 36.1% | 25.7% | −10.4 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 29.7% | 20.0% | −9.7 |
| CRB | Relegation | 43.1% | 52.7% | +9.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 27.2% | 36.3% | +9.1 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 15.8% | 24.8% | +9.0 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 21.8% | 14.2% | −7.7 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 45.3% | 37.7% | −7.6 |
| Fortaleza | Promotion | 16.6% | 9.3% | −7.3 |
