Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: ABC beat Fortaleza with a 19.3% chance and Grêmio Barueri beat Brasiliense with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 21 (before the first match) against those on June 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 25.2% | 14.7% | −10.5 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 50.6% | 40.3% | −10.3 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 41.7% | 51.9% | +10.1 |
| Fortaleza | Promotion | 26.3% | 16.6% | −9.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 36.8% | 27.2% | −9.6 |
| ABC | Relegation | 22.7% | 13.6% | −9.2 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 20.7% | 12.2% | −8.5 |
| Gama | Relegation | 34.1% | 42.3% | +8.2 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 28.1% | 36.1% | +8.1 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 37.3% | 45.3% | +8.0 |
