Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat CRB with a 23.1% chance and Grêmio Barueri beat São Caetano with a 21.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 5 (before the first match) against those on July 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 36.3% | 19.8% | −16.5 |
| São Caetano | Promotion | 37.7% | 23.2% | −14.5 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 31.6% | 45.5% | +13.9 |
| CRB | Relegation | 52.7% | 65.9% | +13.2 |
| Gama | Relegation | 39.6% | 50.4% | +10.8 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 36.0% | 25.5% | −10.5 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 56.1% | 65.0% | +8.9 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 57.4% | 48.8% | −8.7 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 14.1% | 22.6% | +8.5 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 14.2% | 6.6% | −7.6 |
