Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Paraná beat Grêmio Barueri with a 22.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 19 (before the first match) against those on October 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 41.7% | 64.3% | +22.6 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 50.4% | 30.5% | −19.9 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 42.4% | 26.5% | −15.9 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 21.7% | 6.0% | −15.6 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 29.8% | 43.9% | +14.1 |
| Marília | Relegation | 60.3% | 71.8% | +11.5 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 36.5% | 45.4% | +8.9 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 15.0% | 6.6% | −8.4 |
| Gama | Relegation | 82.0% | 88.9% | +6.9 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 93.3% | 98.1% | +4.9 |
