Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Marília beat Fortaleza with a 22.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 25 (before the first match) against those on November 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marília | Relegation | 71.8% | 41.1% | −30.8 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 43.9% | 65.8% | +21.9 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 30.5% | 45.1% | +14.7 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 64.3% | 50.2% | −14.1 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 78.4% | 68.1% | −10.4 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 26.5% | 34.9% | +8.5 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 9.9% | 16.9% | +7.0 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 45.4% | 51.9% | +6.5 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 10.6% | 16.5% | +5.9 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 6.6% | 0.8% | −5.8 |
