Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.2% chance and Paraná beat Vila Nova with a 21.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo André | Promotion | 48.4% | 67.0% | +18.6 |
| Gama | Relegation | 40.5% | 55.3% | +14.8 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 59.9% | 45.3% | −14.6 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 30.2% | 43.8% | +13.6 |
| Marília | Relegation | 49.4% | 61.3% | +11.9 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 18.3% | 30.0% | +11.8 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 21.7% | 10.1% | −11.6 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 76.2% | 65.1% | −11.1 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 46.2% | 38.1% | −8.1 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 57.6% | 49.9% | −7.7 |
