Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Grêmio Barueri beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 25 (before the first match) against those on September 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 40.4% | 59.9% | +19.5 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 37.7% | 19.6% | −18.1 |
| Gama | Relegation | 53.6% | 40.5% | −13.2 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 42.4% | 30.2% | −12.2 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 33.4% | 21.7% | −11.7 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 34.5% | 46.2% | +11.7 |
| Marília | Relegation | 38.4% | 49.4% | +11.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 28.0% | 18.3% | −9.7 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 66.6% | 76.2% | +9.6 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 63.4% | 72.6% | +9.2 |
