Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Santo André with a 21.8% chance and Fortaleza beat ABC with a 23.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 20 (before the first match) against those on September 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 42.4% | 21.4% | −21.0 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 71.0% | 54.4% | −16.6 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 48.3% | 33.4% | −14.8 |
| Gama | Relegation | 39.9% | 53.6% | +13.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 14.8% | 28.0% | +13.2 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 28.2% | 40.4% | +12.2 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 46.2% | 37.7% | −8.5 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 49.3% | 56.5% | +7.2 |
| Marília | Relegation | 31.8% | 38.4% | +6.6 |
| ABC | Relegation | 9.1% | 15.4% | +6.3 |
