Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Bahia beat Brasiliense with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 26 (before the first match) against those on August 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 47.9% | 61.3% | +13.4 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 30.3% | 20.2% | −10.1 |
| América-RN | Relegation | 34.1% | 24.9% | −9.3 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 49.3% | 57.6% | +8.3 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 37.8% | 46.0% | +8.2 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 16.5% | 8.5% | −8.0 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 23.0% | 15.2% | −7.8 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 63.7% | 56.6% | −7.1 |
| Marília | Relegation | 21.2% | 28.2% | +7.0 |
| Gama | Relegation | 57.6% | 64.4% | +6.8 |
